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Press Release


DRAMeXchange projects a mere 2.43% DRAM supply bit growth in 2009

Monday , 04 / 06 / 2009

March 31, 2009---Battered by the DRAM downturn over the past two years, most DRAM makers are facing cash sufficiency problems and may default payment due in the short term. DRAMeXchange believes some DRAM makers will be forced to maintain low utilization rates of under 50% by end of 2009, resulting in the 2009 DRAM supply bit growth to be only 2.43%, compared to 95% in 2007 and 66% in 2008, says DRAMeXchange.

DRAMeXchange lowers DRAM 2009 supply bit growth estimate from previous 17.82% to 2.43%. The new update is based on our assumption that some DRAM makers will continue to maintain low utilization rates or even conduct more production cuts due to tight cash levels and low DRAM prices.

DRAMeXchange also lowers DRAM 2009 demand bit growth from previous 19.82% to 13.84% due to lower PC shipment growth and content per box growth. The 2.43% supply bit growth should bring the supply below the demand in 2H09 and help the DRAM DDR2 prices move up to the range of $1.2-$1.5 if the inventory reduction goes well.

According to DRAMeXchange¡¦s survey, February DRAM output dropped to 687 Million (1Gb equiv. ), 21% down from the highest level at 867 million (1Gb equiv.) in September 2008. DRAM output should continue to go down further, as some DRAM makers cut more capacity in Jan.- March¡¦09. This indicates that the DRAM market has reached near a balance and should experience a shortage in 2H 2009. However, DRAMeXchange also notices that most PC OEMs, module houses and channel distributors have built up over one month inventory. The inventory will be one issue that could hamper the upward momentum when a possible shortage occurs in 2H09.


Figure-2 DRAM makers¡¦ utilization rate in March 2009

Vendors
Fab
Capacity( K unit )
Mar'09
Input
UTR
Samsung
12 inch
350
310
89%
Hynix
12 inch
240
170
71%
Micron
12 inch
75
75
100%
Elpida
12 inch
115
100
87%
PSC
12 inch
130
30
23%
Rexchip
12 inch
80
65
81%
Nanya
12 inch
30
12
40%
Inotera
12 inch
120
50
42%
ProMOS
12 inch
100
15
15%
Winbond
12 inch
30
21
70%
Total
12 inch
1270
848
67%

Source: DRAMeXchange, Mar. 2009.

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2.43% DRAM supply bit growth 2009 DRAMeXchange EN

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